Technologies of the 4th technological revolution. The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Prospects for Man and Humanity

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is coming. Humanity is moving to a different form of labor: it creates completelydigital industry based on the mutual penetration of information technologies.

This topic was discussed for the first timeat the World Economic Forum in 2016. Since about 1000 of the world's largest companies are members of the WEF, about the upcoming changeshas already been heard by at least 1% of people on earth. The percentage that has accumulated 50% of the planet's resources in its hands. And perhaps their closest support staff.

What remains hidden from the rest of the Earth's population?

Partly - the very fact of fundamental changes in production. After all, news about the forum was not given any special place in the media. Many publications may not have received such information at all due to editorial policy.

But, mainly, the forum audience hid and continues to hide something else. Changes in production are dictated by new technologies. The peculiarity of these technologies is that they will not be able to serve only the most affluent representatives of humanity. Moreover, they are destructive to the economic and political, philosophical, ethical and aesthetic systems that the owners of the largest capital have been creating in the world for years.

The Keepers of the Secret of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are already afraid that they will bitterly regret its arrival. After all, she is able to bring their long-standing nightmares to life:

Will free up the time of employees for creativity and education

Will make education accessible and free for all

Makes any job enjoyable

Rationally distribute resources to form a reasonable and planned economy

It will make all types of political system, except democracy, meaningless, and will replace it with

Will destroy bureaucrats

Significantly prolongs people's lives

Restores the ecological balance of the earth

I came to these conclusions after reading the book “The Fourth Industrial Revolution”, published in Russian by the publishing house “E” in 2017. Its author is Klaus Schwab, founder and president of the World Economic Forum. He analyzes what new discoveries in physics, chemistry and mathematics are changing our world today, and how, thanks to their influence, society may change in a few decades. In this article I will briefly recount his most interesting observations and predictions.

Work as rest

Many people have already experienced the beauty of having their workplace automated. And one of the most dramatic changes in it can happen thanks to 3D printers. They are able to “multiply” for us almost any details, objects and even organs. This makes the work of representatives of several hundred professions easier. At the moment, devices are actively used in three areas - automotive, aerospace and medical. In addition, they are already printed on . Schwab cites statistics according to which 81.1% of respondents are confident that by 2025, 5% of consumer goods in the world will be created using 3D printers.

At the same time, many industries install sensors and other numerous means of connecting things in the physical world with virtual networks. According to According to Gartner analysts, the number of connected devices in the world will reach 21 billion in 2020, Intel gives another, even more optimistic figure - 200 billion.Such innovations significantly facilitate both interaction with the workplace and work.

“...The rapid growth of wearable technology and the Internet of Things gives companies the opportunity to merge the digital and physical in ways that benefit employees. For example, employees working with highly complex equipment or in difficult situations can use wearable devices to help design and repair parts. Downloads and updates to systems on connected equipment ensure that workers are using the latest advances while they work,” Schwab outlines the prospects for implementing such devices.

Robots help workers at a BMW plant in the USA

The workplace of people whose main equipment is a computer may disappear completely in a few decades. Every year everything more companies will hire employees, accept their work and pay for it remotely.

Minimum working day

Projects like Uber are very profitable and are inspiring some firms to make as many of their employees as freelancers as possible. Such employers look for workers every day for a specific order or project, use their labor for several hours a day, and then hire new employees for other projects. “For such employees, professional activities will be divided into precise tasks and specific projects, which are entered into the cloud of ready-made “virtual” performers in any country in the world. The main characteristics of such people will be greater freedom and mobility,” explains Schwab.

Another factor that can reduce our working time is the inevitable robotization of production and professions. The reduction in working time occurs due to a reduction in time spent on labor and an increase in its efficiency: if previously a worker needed, say, 8 hours to complete certain tasks, then with the arrival of a robot they can be completed much faster. This is the conclusion of the economists participating in the forum, which, by the way, is also recognized by economists.

However, Schwab in his book dwells in detail on the fact that robotization threatens to initially lead to problems in the field of employment, since companies now prefer to fire workers, displacing them with more productive and accurate robots. But why is this happening? Is technology itself to blame for this turnaround? In my opinion, this is a topic for a separate article.

Robots in production that have replaced people

Development as inevitability

Computers, smartphones, cars, things and clothes that have access to the Internet are something that humanity will inevitably face in the next decade.In 2015, the number of IoT items worldwide was almost 5 billion.

As for people, so far only 40% of the world's inhabitants are connected to the network through some kind of device. However, now 85% of the world's inhabitants live within a couple of hundred kilometers from a cell tower. The total number of smartphone users is 2.5 billion. There are currently more than 3.5 billion Internet users.

Will it be possible to hide some knowledge from people if the Internet becomes public? Schwab discusses this topic at length and in detail. In short, his answer: probably not. For every security and data protection system there is a hacker. And of course, nothing can prevent the dissemination of information useful for education or creativity. It will “gushing” in a huge stream into the consciousness of billions of people.

As for traditional education, no matter in what form it exists after the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it will become visual and exciting thanks to augmented reality and the development of recommendation programs (such as stepic).

Another interesting aspect that Schwab mentions is the coming increase in the prestige of the “creative” professions. “Occupations that require social and creative skills will have a low risk of automation for the foreseeable future,” he writes. And he notes that wages for non-automated labor will increase. This can motivate people to try their hand at creativity no worse than the accessible Internet.

Reasonable consumption

Technology is already changing our consumption, making it smarter.

People's attitudes towards property are being transformed. For example, some items, transport and food can no longer be purchased, but rented from owners or companies. This technology is called “sharing” (from the English word “sharing”). The most popular and promoted option, of course, is car sharing.According to a study by Frost & Sullivan, in 2011 there were about 700 thousand subscribers to such a service in Europe. By 2020, their number of subscribers will grow to 15 million people, and the number of available cars will grow to 240 thousand.

But from Schwab's point of viewSharing will ensure the efficient use, first of all, of rarely used assets. For example, not the car itself, but the free space in it (BlaBlacar), an unoccupied bed in an apartment (Tvil.ru), etc. The author of the book calls the economy, where the majority of companies operate in the field of such services, the “on-demand economy” and prophesies its imminent arrival.

It is also important that sharing technology makes the acquisition of private or personal property almost meaningless. After all, why do you need a personal car that needs to be refueled and maintained if you just need to get from point A to point B? Why use a professional camera if you only shoot something important once a year? Renting something means replacing a product with services that are much more rational and cheaper.

Changes are also taking place in the minds of entrepreneurs. Thus, Uber currently provides travel services, but does not own the cars. And the world's largest provider of hotel rooms, Airbnb, does not have a single hotel. In the near future, it will not be necessary to own the means of production in order to receive maximum profit from them.

It becomes easier to “predict” people’s reaction to goods, which brings a planned economy closer. In recent years, consumers, accustomed to market abundance, have become much more critical of goods and their delivery. For the convenience of manufacturers, programmers were forced to develop numerous analytical services. They, firstly, collect a wide variety of data about buyers and create a multidimensional picture of purchasing behavior ( Data Cafe ). Secondly, they lead to increased transparency of production for buyers ( Competera) . Thirdly, they are able to plan and optimize production ( APS and ERP systems).

In addition, Schwab notes rather abstractly that soon “successful organizations will move away from hierarchical structures to more collaborative models.” That is, it will be possible to create analytical services not for one production, but for several at once and even in completely different areas. I note that with the further development of analytical services and systems, perhaps people will be able to build such a system for the state (something like ). Although property owners probably won’t like such “analytical services.”

Applications like OPower, which allow you to compare your consumption level with the consumption level of your neighbors and find ways to save resources, will strengthen a new attitude towards consumption.

Cars in politics

Many modern political systems may not survive the Fourth Industrial Revolution. “The key point is this: Technology will increasingly empower citizens, giving them a new way to express their opinions, coordinate efforts, and perhaps find ways to circumvent government oversight,” admits Schwab. According to him, the central role of governments will decrease due to the increase in such competition, as well as the redistribution and decentralization of power. Citizens will have to get used to increased political participation. And officials, in order not to disappear, will be forced to make their structures as transparent, effective and efficient as possible.

Otherwise, their work could be almost completely automated in a few decades. “Governments may begin to recognize that the data collection methods they used previously are no longer needed, that they can move to big data technology to automate their work, and also introduce innovative approaches to provide services to citizens,” the author of the book notes. Because taking advantage of big data enables better and faster decision making across a wide range of industries and applications.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will also change the functions of states. Most likely, the war of the future will be cyber warfare. The peculiarity of this phenomenon is that during combat operations any networks or connected devices are involved. As a result, the line between war and peace becomes less pronounced (am I a warrior or a civilian?), and most importantly, the very concept of an attack is blurred, since you cannot always be sure who is attacking you and whether he is attacking you at all. Instead of individual hostile states, other states are threatened by “an endless and ill-defined universe of hackers, terrorists, criminals, activists, etc.” Moreover, cyber warfare can also be waged against an enterprise or an individual (just remember the recent attacks on Rosneft). Should state military forces take responsibility for repelling all cyber attacks on their territory and against their citizens? And if not, then why do people need a state when all wars except cybernetic ones disappear?

Another function of states is to collect funds for general needs - taxes. But the inevitable “on-demand economy” creates serious problems for tax collection, as many freelancers find it easier and more profitable to work on the black labor market. In addition, decentralized payment systems are emerging that make it difficult to trace the origin and destination of transactions. Thus, the government of almost all countries will soon have to fight for the “attractiveness” of their own taxes. Otherwise, state budgets will be noticeably empty.

Caring for nature

It is difficult to predict whether people will switch en masse to alternative energy sources and get into eco-mobiles. Eco-cities can also remain just a curiosity for many years.

But Schwab insists there are other technologies with greater potential for regenerating our natural environment - Internet of Things technologies. They allow you to track the flow of materials and energy to achieve maximum efficiency throughout the value chain. “Cisco estimates that of the $14.4 trillion in economic benefits that will be realized through the Internet of Things over the next decade, $2.7 trillion of the value could come from reducing waste and optimizing supply chains and logistics. The Internet of Things can also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9.1 billion per year by 2020. This amounts to 16.5% of this year’s volumes,” writes the economist.

Eco-city concept by a team from China

Also, according to Schwab, the coming democratization of information and increased transparency of business will allow citizens to demand accountability from countries and corporations that regularly violate environmental laws.

Long and healthy life

People of the future will become healthier and more perfect. In recent years, significant progress has been made in reducing the cost and simplifying genetic sequencing - determination of genetic damage (mutations) in DNA that are the cause of hereditary diseases, predispositions or characteristics of the body. And more recently - in the activation and editing of genes. Today, sequencing can be done in a few hours and a few hundred dollars. For example, the super-powerful IBM Watson can recommend a personalized cancer treatment program in minutes based on data about your genes, treatment history and disease. Not only cancer, but many other unsolved medical problems have a genetic component, so the ability to determine an individual's genetic makeup would be an effective and low-cost way to revolutionize an efficient healthcare system. The technology makes it possible, for example, to create high-quality organs during transplantation. Researchers have already begun shaping the genome of pigs with the goal of growing organs for human transplantation. The development of such bio-technologies, according to analysts from the World Economic Forum, will lead to an increase in the population to 8 billion by 2030.

But the share of the old population in the world will inevitably increase. According to Schwab, fertility already in 2016 fell below replacement level not only in Europe, but also in South America, the Caribbean, and many countries in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. In 2017, the trends did not change.

How much money these people will spend on living, and where they will get this money from, is the subject of a fierce economic debate.

Afterword

Schwab's book explores the potential of new technologies in detail. Being an optimist, this European economist is confident that they are able to provide all of humanity with a new, much higher standard of living. They will help resolve previously unsolvable problems in a variety of areas. Created to form a more just society, similar to what the communists offer the world.

But, at the same time, Schwab honestly admits that the owners of large capital are going to use these technologies only in their own interests (as they did in previous industrial revolutions). Instead of raising wages and reducing working hours, people are proposed to be fired, depriving them of their livelihood. They plan to use the increase in the number of freelancers only to avoid paying even the living wage. They are beginning to abandon the automation of production, citing pseudo-concerns about the earnings of hired workers, etc. If Schwab’s fears are confirmed, the technology, the purpose of which is to more honestly divide the planet’s resources and improve the lives of all 7 billion, will work “idle” for some time, for 1% of the chosen “earthlings”.

However, progress is cruel to a small layer of egoists. Now it is about bringing the next industrial revolution to the world. So that the new technology can perform its real functions. So that 99% of the world's population realize: all the resources and amenities of the earth are created for them. They belong to them. And they took back their enormous wealth.

The article very briefly examines the four technological revolutions that have already taken place, which led to the replacement of objects of competition (knowledge, technology and the production of machines and mechanisms). The actions of motive power (water, steam, electricity and hydrocarbons) were directed to these objects. Then, starting from the fifth technological structure, a revolution occurred, which marked the transition to a qualitatively new design, directing the actions of its intellectual forces to new objects of competition, namely to different types of convergence of nano, bio, info and cogno technologies. At the same time, actions aimed at a new subject of competition began to use a new logic of cooperation (division of labor, use of the best standards and exchange of experience), which provided access to the intellectual powers of the global cloud technological resource.

Introduction

Humanity has experienced five technological revolutions. Every time the transition from one technological structure to another is accompanied by a crisis and destruction of the old technological structure of the economy. This is due to the fact that the need for old technologies and products produced with their help decreases over time, and the need for resources increases. As a result, enterprises incur unexpected expenses, lose their customers, profits, and banks become more cautious in issuing loans, investors tend to go to the bottom (stock market) in the hope of preserving their capital. All this taken together promises numerous problems for entrepreneurs who, for one reason or another, did not have time or do not want to direct their actions to a new subject of competition (knowledge, technology and production of products with new values), which inspires confidence among investors and consumers of products.

In each technological structure, competing items from several previous structures can be used. For example, in Russia, technologies of the third (electric drives of various machines and mechanisms developed at the beginning of the last century), fourth (current oil and gas production platforms) and fifth technological structures (cloud communications of enterprises using computers) are currently used as a subject of competition. electronic governments, INTERNET). But gradually, in the depths of the next technological order, technologies of the subsequent technological order are maturing, the actions of which are aimed at modernizing the objects of competition from previous technological orders.

For example, hydrocarbon production technologies rightly belong to the subjects of competition from the fourth technological order. Various internal combustion engines require these items. But technologies of the fifth technological order are capable, with the help of special additives produced using nanotechnology, to significantly increase the wear resistance of resource extraction tools. Such modification of competitive items produced in the era of the fourth technological order allows one to significantly extend their life cycle and maintain their competitive advantages at the proper level.

In Fig. Figure 1 shows the main system design that characterizes competition in each technological structure. The subject of competition includes knowledge, technology and production. Actions aimed at objects of competition include various methods of converting resources into motive or intellectual power, as well as various logics of action (division of labor of technological chains, exchange of world experience and use of the best world standards).

When moving to the next technological structure, the entire system structure, containing objects and actions aimed at competition, inevitably changes. The old design no longer satisfies entrepreneurs, since the costs of its maintenance are constantly growing in geometric progression, while labor productivity is growing in arithmetic progression. Changing the design increases the investment attractiveness of enterprises and allows one to significantly reduce the costs of actions aimed at new areas of competition.

1. The first technological revolution

In different countries, the emergence of the first technological structure and related objects and actions of competition took place in 1785–1843, but this emergence occurred first in England. At that time, England was the largest importer of cotton products. This meant that the objects and actions of British industrialists did not meet the requirements of global competition. This situation could only be reversed with the help of a design that replaced human labor with universal motive power. In terms of objects and actions of competition in Fig. 1, it can be argued that English industrialists, finding themselves unable to compete with Indian weavers, whose fabrics were better and cheaper, tried to study competition items, that is, to accumulate knowledge, master new technologies and mechanize fabric production using transformation of resources into motive force, as well as a new logic of action based on manufactories(actions aimed at dividing labor in the production of yarn and fabrics).

With the invention of spinning and weaving looms, the technological revolution of the cotton industry was not yet over. The fact is that a textile machine (like any other machine) consists of two parts: a working machine (tool machine), which directly processes the material, and an engine (resource), which drives this working machine. The technological revolution began with the machine-tool. If before this a worker could work with only one spindle, then the machine could rotate many spindles, as a result of which labor productivity increased by about 40 times. But there was a discrepancy between the machine's performance and its motive power. To eliminate this discrepancy, it was necessary that the driving force of textile machines be the force of falling water.

But all this industrial development was jeopardized due to lack of necessary resources. There were not fast-flowing rivers everywhere, so there was a real war for water between entrepreneurs. Owners of land along the river banks did not miss the opportunity to get their share of the profits by increasing the price of plots of land. In essence, land owners played the role of unscrupulous distributors. Therefore, it was desirable for the entrepreneur to get rid of the need to pay significant amounts of money in the form of rent to the landowner, whose monopoly was the land on the river bank. All this taken together forced entrepreneurs to actively search for a new driving force capable of providing growing labor productivity with sufficient resources. And such motive power was found in the form of steam. As a result, the shortage of the “water” resource led to a change in design, that is, to the objects and actions of the “steam resource”. Competition and cooperation of small textile enterprises gave way to competition and cooperation of technological chains of large manufactories.

2. Second technological revolution

This revolution began in 1780–1896 with the invention of a universal steam engine by James Watt, which could be used as an engine for any working mechanism. Back in 1786, the first steam mill was built in London; the year before, the first textile steam factory was built. This completed the process of mastering a new subject of competition, shown in Fig. 1, consisting of knowledge, technology and production of various steam engines and mechanisms. Actions, aimed at this subject of competition were based on use of steam propulsion, as well as on logic of action, based on the division of labor and the use of new quality standards for textile production.

With the advent of steam, factories could leave river valleys, where they were located in seclusion, and move closer to markets, where they could have raw materials, goods and labor. The first steam engines, which appeared in the 17th century, played a significant role in other types of economic activity. Thus, James Watt's steam engine could be used as a universal platform in various industries and transport (steam locomotives, steamships, steam drives of spinning and weaving machines, steam mills, steam hammers), as well as other operations. At the same time, the history of the invention of the universal steam engine once again proves the validity of the Chinese formula of “investment happiness” in that a technological revolution is not just a chain of inventions. The Russian mechanic Polzunov invented his steam engine before Watt, but in Russia at that time it was not needed and was forgotten, as they apparently forgot about many other “untimely” inventions.

3. Third technological revolution

The third technological revolution took place in 1889–1947 as a result of attempts by entrepreneurs to maintain their competitiveness at the proper level. But the previous subject of competition, shown in Fig. 1 (knowledge and technology for the production of steam engines), and actions with it no longer meet the new requirements for price and quality of products. Numerous steam engines required constant maintenance and human presence. This did not suit steam consumers, and the world began to search for another system design that would significantly increase the service life of the motive force. Subject to global competition steel electrical machines and mechanisms built into new means of production, and actions, aimed at them, began to use the motive power of electricity. Again it was necessary to accumulate knowledge and technology for producing new motive force and invent a new design for accessing this motive force. The key moment in the onset of a new technological order was the invention of Thomas Edison and his subsequent actions to create private companies using the electrical resource. The invention of the possibility of transmitting electricity made it possible to use new forms of division of labor, new technologies based on electric drives and simple conveyors.

It should be noted that the essential side of Thomas Edison’s activity was not the talent of an inventor, but the genius of an entrepreneur and technologist who brought inventions to life. In addition to the light bulb, everyone knows that Edison developed an alternating current generator and made significant contributions to the design of the phonograph, movie camera, telephone, and typewriter (he did not invent all of this). In the era of the third technological order, the technology for converting resources into electrical energy, as well as generating, transmitting and using electrical energy, has been improved. The power of stations and the length of networks grew, individual energy complexes were connected by high-voltage transmission lines, and there was a gradual transition from centralized power supply to individual enterprises to the electrification of entire countries. The proliferation of electrically powered objects and activities in manufacturing contributed to the efficient division of labor in industry. The main achievement of the third technological structure was that only electrical energy was able to finally bridge the gap between the location of natural energy resources (water sources, fuel deposits) and the location of its consumers. They learned to obtain the motive “electric” force of magnetoelectric machines back in the 30s of the 19th century, but in practice this type of current was recognized and appreciated only in the next technological structure.

4. The fourth technological revolution

The fourth technological structure (1940-1990) arose in the depths of the previous “electric” structure and began to be used as main subject of competition in Fig. 1 knowledge and technologies aimed at converting hydrocarbon energy into universal motor force. As a result of actions aimed at this subject, internal combustion engines appeared and cars, tractors and airplanes and other machines and mechanisms were built on this platform. Nuclear energy began its development long before its use in the economies of countries. This proves that in life there is a constant process of updating knowledge, technology and the production of resources and the ensuing design of converting resources into different types of motive power. This process is not fast due to the human factor, which is inherent in the socio-economic system. However, the strategic vision of the most advanced entrepreneurs and their desire to ensure long-term global competition gradually led to the formation of new forms of cooperation.

The fourth technological structure significantly changed the appearance of the technological structure of the economy (tractors, mechanisms based on internal combustion engines, etc.) and actually ended the age of mechanization in various types of economic activity. The most important event was the invention of new activities aimed at competitive objects (cars), namely the assembly line for the production of cars, as well as tractors, airplanes, and so on. Mechanized household appliances, small-sized mechanisms for processing food, and later electric shavers, vacuum cleaners, washing and dishwashers, musical devices and complexes, etc. appeared in everyday life of citizens.

For this technological order, oil and gas, as well as their derivatives, became the most important global technological resource. Gradually, this resource was transformed into different types of motor force. Through these driving forces, many developed countries have provided themselves with the necessary economic growth. With the help of new types of propulsion forces, the economy of arms competition has flourished, based on the use of internal combustion engines of various types. On this basis, various platforms emerged for the production of new models of machine tools, aircraft, tanks, cars, tractors, submarines and ships, and other military equipment. These platforms, provided with the propulsion power of internal combustion engines, have themselves become a global subject of competition, to which production networks of enterprises have begun to act.

Thus, the fourth technological structure increased the competitiveness of the economy due to new competition items(knowledge, technology and production of systems on the internal combustion engine platform). These items were targeted actions of technological chains enterprises on the division of labor, on the application of new quality standards and on the exchange of experience with other entrepreneurs.

It should be noted that for the only time in the history of the development of the Russian Empire, the USSR was able to quickly master the competition of the fourth technological order in the period 1930-1940 and, in particular, in the field of weapons. This happened thanks to the country’s enormous resources, as well as competent actions of the authorities aimed at creating technological chains of enterprises, division of labor, timely training of competent personnel, using the best standards and taking into account the experience of the United States and Germany in the production of weapons.

5. Fifth technological revolution.

The trigger for the fifth technological revolution was the invention of the transistor in 1956 by American physicists William Shockley, John Badin and Walter Bratten. For this invention, the authors were jointly awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics. The transistor revolutionized radio technology. It gave rise to new competition subjects in Fig. 1, based on the achievements of microelectronics and, ultimately, led to the creation of microcircuits, microprocessors, computers and many other communication systems without which we currently cannot imagine our lives. This was a way out of the “primitive mechanical” age into the electronic, space and computer age.

At this stage, for the first time in history, the subject of competition in Fig. 1 (knowledge, technology and production) ceased to serve the purpose of simply replacing human labor with the motive power of machines, as in previous structures. Instead of this subject of competition began to serve the goals of developing hitherto unknown intellectual forces of mass automation of production, product design and enterprise management. As a result, at the turn of the century the most complex interdisciplinary intellectual forces automation of product design (CAD), technology management (ACS) and enterprise management (ACS). Actions, These forces have led to a new logic of division of labor, exchange of world experience and application of the best world standards using cloud Internet technologies. Such actions began to be completely another way to transform resources into intellectual power, which received the name cloudy from the words “ cloud computing (cloud computing)".

It should be noted that during the fourth technological order, the resource of intellectual power already existed, but it was relatively small, and there were few consumers. In the initial stages of the development of cloud computing, the resource was used by employees of universities and research laboratories for collective creativity to create intellectual power sufficient to create inventions and discoveries. Subject to competition was the creation of various catalogs of knowledge, technologies for the production of components. This subject was addressed actions to transform available resources into intellectual power catalog knowledge.

The pioneer in the field of converting available resources into the intellectual power of knowledge was the Yahoo search engine. It was not a knowledge platform in the truest sense because the scope of knowledge search was limited to catalog resources. Then catalogs spread and began to be used everywhere, and search methods developed along with them. At the moment, catalogs have almost lost popularity. This is because the modern knowledge platform contains a huge amount of intellectual power derived from resources through associative modes of action.

Today's competition includes the Open Directory Project, or DMOZ, knowledge directory, which contains information on 5 million resources, and the Google search engine, which contains about 8 billion documents. Actions aimed at these competitive items have allowed search engines such as MSN Search, Yahoo and Google to reach an international level of competition. In this area, new subjects of competition (platforms of knowledge, technologies) have yet to be identified, which will be targeted by the convergence of technologies, which are still poorly studied and inaccessible to the mass user. It follows that the fifth technological revolution is still ongoing and many new inventions and discoveries await us.

6. The sixth technological revolution

This revolution is still ahead and, unlike the previous ones, for the first time in the history of mankind, it considers as actions aimed at the main subjects of global competition in Fig. 1 (knowledge, nano, bio, information and cognitive technologies), not motive power, but primarily intellectual forces person. Actions taken in the previous technological order in the field of cloud communications and information retrieval systems led to the fact that investments in the form of global cloud technology resource, shown in Fig. 2. During the fourth and fifth technological orders, global competition throughout the world was supported by a powerful global resource (dollars), emanating mainly from the United States and lending to numerous, mainly American buyers.

The main driving force of enterprises aimed at competition has become consumer credit. At the same time, lenders turned a blind eye to the fact that credit risks were increasing and a significant part of borrowers did not repay their loans. But on the other hand, the huge demand for goods and services in the US market was maintained, which served as a driving force for improving the life cycle parameters of manufacturers of products of the fifth technological order in the US, EU countries, China and other countries. During the transition of the world economy to the sixth technological structure, a systemic failure occurred, which was expressed in the depletion of credit resources. This failure led to the collapse of the global financial system and investment market. Now, from the ruins of the old model, the outlines of a new model are emerging, focused on means of improving investment attractiveness and other parameters of the life cycle of manufacturers through systemic innovative breakthroughs. In other words, credit as the driving force of the economy has given way to intellectual force aimed at the convergence of high technologies.

Nowadays, a new technological structure is emerging from the massive application of innovations in various types of economic activity. Its main subject to global competition raises knowledge, technology and production of intellectual power to unprecedented heights of collective creativity. Actions aimed at the main subject of competition identify and eliminate discrepancies between the requirements of investors and the growing complexity of actions aimed at different ways of converting resources into intellectual power and at different logics of the division of labor.

It became clear that the system design, consisting of technology parks, clusters, and venture funds scattered around the world, in the new conditions is clearly not capable of implementing such projects. At the same time, the role of enterprise cooperation, the use of the best world standards and the exchange of knowledge and competencies has grown incredibly.

To transform investment resources into new forms of intellectual power, a new so-called global cloud technology resource of knowledge, technologies and products that reduces investor risks and ensuring the implementation of systems with a high level of artificial intelligence. And to access a new global cloud technological resource, you need a completely different system design, which should provide access for innovative businesses from around the world to a new resource with the purpose of producing new types of intellectual forces. This design is represented in Fig. 2 by a certain set of intelligent shells connected to each other across the globe using cloud communications. Each intelligent shell in turn consists of a set of functional platforms.

Each platform supports specific norms, rules and resulting standards for transforming resources into new types of intelligence, is filled with a variety of complex design decisions in different countries, and is capable of quickly identifying and eliminating inconsistencies between them. Thanks to this, the shell with platforms is integrated into a new global cloud technological resource, which can be transformed into a resource of intellectual power available to other producers, distributors and consumers of knowledge, developers and suppliers of technology, producers of intellectual power from around the world. Moreover, the shell itself and its logic of action (Fig. 1) serve as the basis for cooperation between enterprises, providing for the international division of labor, the application of the best world standards and the exchange of world experience.

The number of platforms in each intellectual shell serves as the main feature of a certain type of enterprise activity. If we are dealing with shells consisting of two platforms (technology transfers and product production), then this circumstance clearly indicates that we are able to successfully modernize the economy through the import of technologies and production of products. If we use shells consisting of three platforms (knowledge, technology transfer and product production), then we thereby acquire the possibility of collective creativity in creating new types of intellectual forces aimed at subjects of global competition.

The nature, objects and actions of the system design, shown in Fig. 1, aimed at global competition in the sixth technological order are shown in more detail in Fig. 3. . Here subject of competition is characterized by a high level of technology convergence in the NBIC and CCEIC designs (The S (socio) + NBIC design is still being discussed.). The first design means the interpenetration of nano(N), bio (B), info(I) and cogno (C) technologies in order to implement the most complex projects in the history of mankind related to the transformation of resources into intellectual forces in different types of production activities. The second design means transforming resources into intellectual forces for the convergence of cloud computing (CC-cloud computing), enhanced by knowledge about the economic activity of the enterprise (E), modeling of reporting generators (I) and cognitive properties of systems (C).

The second design ensures a transition to the use of intellectual power in those areas where the human brain is still used and where there is a high degree of formalization of information. For example, this concerns the automation of financial reporting and its translation into foreign languages. The conditions under which global competition takes place in the sixth technological order are characterized by the simultaneous presence of technologies from different previous technological orders. At the same time, the main actions of technological chains are aimed at using intellectual forces in various types of human activity

To carry out basic actions, enterprises from technological chains, represented by global industrial centers, acquire the ability to use intelligent shells that help to cooperate the efforts of enterprises in different ways of converting resources into intellectual forces. Cooperation should be based on a logic of action aimed at exchanging experience, using the best standards and dividing labor. In the division of labor, the distribution of components from those countries where the best quality of these products has been achieved is of particular importance. In this case, all actions of distributors aimed at competition must be transparent and impose requirements on product manufacturers to comply with a given level of quality.

The owner of the system design (global industrial center) provides rental of various intelligent shells consisting of platforms of knowledge, technology and production of products. At the same time, the owner determines the subjects of global competition, that is, knowledge, technology and the production of innovative products. With the help of intelligent shells, the owner is able to connect to innovative and financial supermarkets, ensuring transparency, responsibility and high quality in converting the resources of financial supermarkets into the intellectual forces of an innovative supermarket.

In Fig. Figure 4 shows the architecture of the knowledge platform included in the intelligent shell. This platform creates the operating conditions for another platform – the technology platform. The owners of the knowledge platform are primarily universities, scientific institutes, and other industrial centers. Owners carry out actions aimed at objects of accumulation, production and consumption of knowledge to transform resources into intellectual forces. These actions include examination and evidence base of scientific research work (R&D). Competent personnel (scientists and scientific cooperation managers) have the right to use the knowledge platform. These personnel produce products that include fundamental knowledge and publications. Using the knowledge platform, they carry out actions aimed at protecting patents and conduct business examination of the processes of production and consumption of knowledge.

The partner of industrial centers can be the state that is most advanced in the field of innovation, various international regulators for the protection of intellectual property, ensuring an improvement in the technological balance of payments (the balance between income and expenses associated with the development of new technologies). The platform allows for communications with private entrepreneurs who use a global cloud technological resource as an investment in innovation.

The knowledge platform is connected through an intelligent shell and system design to many other intelligent shells, and through them to innovative supermarkets. Such supermarkets play an important role in transforming knowledge into technology, converting financial supermarket resources into intellectual power, and ensuring transparency in the supply of parts for complex products from around the world. Thus, technological chains of enterprises through industrial centers carry out effective forms of cooperation in the international space with the aim of innovative breakthroughs and the development of convergent NBIC and CCEIC products.

Figure 5 shows a technology platform that ensures the transformation of financial supermarket resources into the intellectual R&D forces of a global cloud technology resource. This platform enables enterprise production network platforms to operate in countries as diverse as Japan and the EU, for example. The platform considers technology transfer and convergence as the main subject of competition.

In addition, various mechanisms for regulating rights to technologies are an important subject of competition. Through global technology expertise, we accelerate the transformation of ideas into products.

Platform owners (and this can be both technological chains of small enterprises and individual large enterprises), thanks to project orientation and protective measures, patent protection mechanisms and business expertise, reduce the risks of poor-quality technologies and improve their technological balance of payments. This balance serves as an important indicator of the innovative activity of enterprises, since it reflects income and expenses when performing R&D.

This platform solves the extremely important task of implementing a transparent and high-quality distribution system. In the context of the international division of labor, distribution occupies an important place, since the technological chains of enterprises produce individual parts, and the serial assembly of high-tech products is carried out at one of the large enterprises. Thus, the technological chain, like manufactories from the first technological order, is able to compete with other manufacturers and produce parts and products in general of the NBIC class.

An important link in the technological chain of enterprises is personnel training. Here the main requirements for competencies lie in the area of ​​innovation. Therefore, the main body of specialists consists of scientific entrepreneurs like Edison, as well as qualified engineers. Training and certification of personnel for compliance with competency requirements is carried out within the framework of project seminars accredited among users of the technology platform. And of course, an important circumstance is that this platform provides users with the opportunity to reduce innovative and financial risks when transforming resources into intellectual forces of convergence of NBIC technologies with the help of innovative and financial supermarkets.

In Fig. Figure 6 shows the architecture of the platform for production networks of enterprises connected to each other using cloud communications. Enterprise production networks operate on the basis of this platform. They sell their products through science-intensive supermarkets. Investors and platform owners interact through financial supermarkets, which significantly reduce investor risks. The main subjects of global competition of the platform are knowledge and technologies of consumer lending, to which intellectual forces are directed, including the best standards, exchange of global experience, infrastructure for the division of labor between various enterprises from technological chains, competent technological forecasting, a competent engineering corps and cloud industrial centers.

The main actions of the platform are aimed at improving the technological balance of payments and accessing the resources of innovative supermarkets that ensure transparent distribution of high-tech products. Numerous enterprises from technological chains use cloud communications among themselves to exchange projects based on the use of digital analogues based on a class of solutions instead of physical expensive layouts Product Lifecycle Management (PLM).

Conclusion

Thus, we have very briefly examined the four technological revolutions that have already taken place, which entailed the replacement of objects of competition (knowledge, technology and the production of machines and mechanisms). The actions of motive power (water, steam, electricity and hydrocarbons) were directed to these objects. Then, starting from the fifth technological structure, a revolution occurred, which marked the transition to a qualitatively new design, directing the actions of its intellectual forces to new objects of competition, namely to different types of convergence of nano, bio, info and cogno technologies. At the same time, actions aimed at a new subject of competition began to use a new logic of cooperation (division of labor, use of the best standards and exchange of experience), which provided access to the intellectual powers of the global cloud technological resource.

Literature:

Perez.K. Technological revolutions and financial capital. Dynamics of bubbles and periods of prosperity. M. Case. 2012. 232 p.

Ovchinnikov V.V. Global competition. M. INES 2007. 358 p.

Ovchinnikov V.V. Global competition in the era of a mixed economy. M. INES-MAIB 2011. 152 p.

Ovchinnikov V.V. Technologies of global competition. M. INES-MAIB.2012. 280 pp.

The global industry today stands on the threshold of the fourth technological revolution, which is associated with the possibility of a radical modernization of production and the economy, as well as the emergence of such phenomena as digital production, the sharing economy, collective consumption, the “uberization” of the economy, the cloud model computing, distributed networks, network-centric control model, decentralization of control, etc. The technological basis for the transition to a new economic paradigm is the Internet of Things. This is stated in the J’son & Partners Consulting report on global trends and development potential of the Industrial Internet of Things in Russia.

In this regard, both new opportunities and threats are opening up for the domestic industry: in addition to the multiple lag in labor productivity and quality of products, a lag in the transition to new principles of interaction in the “supplier-consumer” chain may be added. This may lead to a fundamental impossibility of competing with leading international industrial concerns, both in terms of product costs and speed of order execution.

Internet of Things

Internet of Things (IoT, Internet of Things) is a system of unified computer networks and connected physical objects (things) with built-in sensors and software for collecting and exchanging data, with the ability to remotely monitor and control in an automated mode, without human intervention.

There is a consumer (mass) segment for the use of the Internet of Things, which includes personal connected devices - smart watches, various types of trackers, cars, smart home devices, etc. and the corporate (business) segment, which includes industry verticals and inter-industry markets - industry, transport, agriculture, energy (Smart Grid), smart city (Smart City), etc.

In this study, J’son & Partners Consulting consultants examined in detail the Internet of Things in the corporate (business) segment, which is called the Industrial Internet of Things, in particular, its application in industry - the Industrial Internet.

Industrial (often Industrial) Internet of Things (Industria lInternet of Things, IIoT) - Internet of things for corporate / industry use - a system of unified computer networks and connected industrial (production) objects with built-in sensors and software for collecting and exchanging data, with the possibility of remote control and control in an automated mode, without human intervention.

In industrial applications, the term “Industrial Internet” is used.

The introduction of network interaction between machines, equipment, buildings and information systems, the ability to monitor and analyze the environment, the production process and one’s own state in real time, the transfer of control and decision-making functions to intelligent systems lead to a change in the “paradigm” of technological development, also called the fourth industrial revolution.

The fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is the transition to fully automated digital production, controlled by intelligent systems in real time in constant interaction with the external environment, going beyond the boundaries of a single enterprise, with the prospect of unification into a global industrial network of things and services.

In a narrow sense, Industry 4.0 (Industrie 4.0) is the name of one of the ten projects of the German state Hi-Tech strategy until 2020, which describes the concept of smart manufacturing (Smart Manufacturing) based on the global industrial network of the Internet of Things and Services ).

In a broad sense, Industry 4.0 characterizes the current trend in the development of automation and data exchange, which includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud computing. It represents a new level of organization of production and management of the value chain throughout the entire life cycle of manufactured products.

First Industrial Revolution (late XVIII - early XIX centuries) was due to the transition from an agricultural economy to industrial production due to the invention of steam energy, mechanical devices, and the development of metallurgy.

Second Industrial Revolution (second half of the 19th - beginning of the 20th centuries) - the invention of electrical energy, the subsequent mass production and division of labor.

Third Industrial Revolution (since 1970) - the use of electronic and information systems in production, which ensured intensive automation and robotization of production processes.

Fourth Industrial Revolution (the term was introduced in 2011, as part of the German initiative - Industry 4.0).

Despite the active introduction of various types of infocommunication technologies (ICT), electronics and industrial robotics into production processes, industrial automation, which began at the end of the 20th century, was predominantly local in nature, when each enterprise or divisions within one enterprise used its own (proprietary) management system ( or a combination thereof) that were incompatible with other systems.

The development of the Internet, ICT, sustainable communication channels, cloud technologies and digital platforms, as well as the information “explosion” that emerged from various data channels, ensured the emergence of open information systems and global industrial networks (extending the boundaries of an individual enterprise and interacting with each other), which have a transformative impact on all sectors of the modern economy and business beyond the ICT sector itself, and transfer industrial automation to a new, fourth stage of industrialization.

In 2011, the number of connected physical objects in the world exceeded the number of connected people. Since this time, it has been customary to estimate the rapid development of the Internet of Things era.

Despite the differences in the assessment methodology of various international analytical agencies, it can be stated that the application of the new concept will be associated primarily with the widespread use of the Internet of Things in economic sectors.

Foreign experts recognize the Internet of Things as a disruptive technology that brings irreversible transformation to the organization of modern production and business processes.

An analysis of the experience of implementing the Internet of Things in the world, carried out by consultants J`son & Partners Consulting, shows that the transition to the IIoT concept occurs due to the formation of cross-industrial open (horizontal and vertical) production and service ecosystems, combining many different management information systems of different enterprises and involving many different devices.

This approach allows you to implement in the virtual space arbitrarily complex end-to-end business processes that are capable of automatically implementing optimization management (end-to-end engineering) of various types of resources through the entire supply chain and creating the value of products - from idea development, design, engineering to production, operation and recycling.

To implement this approach, it is required that all necessary information about the actual state of resources (raw materials, electricity, machines and industrial equipment, vehicles, production, marketing, sales) both within one and at different enterprises be available to automated control systems different levels (drives and sensors, control, production management, sales and planning).

Thus, we can say that the Industrial Internet of Things is an organizational and technological transformation of production, based on the principles of the “digital economy”, which allows, at the management level, to combine real production, transport, human, engineering and other resources into almost unlimitedly scalable software-controlled virtual ones resource pools (shared economy) and provide the user not with the devices themselves, but with the results of their use (device functions) through the implementation of end-to-end production and business processes (end-to-end engineering).

“Until now, companies could only manage part of the production process, never being able to see the whole picture. And optimizing each individual part of this process optimizes the entire chain. We also had difficulty maintaining supply stability, productivity and efficiency. If you look at transportation, 75% of the total volume was provided by trucks, which created problems.

Today, with ABB, we can offer businesses the ability to connect all production facilities almost in real time. To see what is happening to it, have feedback with them, control them, identify and avoid various problems and pitfalls with different stages of production, individual services and simplify equipment inventory. This gives a whole new level of optimization. Hence - productivity growth, innovation, any aspect important for the enterprise. But this is only one direction. Think automation, robots, 3D printing..."

From the speech of a Microsoft representative at the IoT World 2016 conference, USA (Çağlayan Arkan – General Manager, Worldwide Manufacturing & Resources Sector, Enterprise & Partner Group)

The introduction of the Internet of Things requires a fundamental change in approaches to the creation and use of automated information management systems (ACS) and general approaches to the management of enterprises and organizations.

“From a technical point of view, the Internet of Things is very easy to implement. The most difficult part is changing business processes. And I have never seen a single company come to you one glorious day and offer you such a magical solution.”

From a speech by a Baker Hughes representative at the IoT World 2016 conference, USA (Blake Burnette - Director, Equipment Research and Development)

According to J’son & Partners Consulting, behind the quantitative growth of the Internet of Things and the organizational and technological transformation of production are important qualitative changes in the economy:

• data that was previously unavailable, with the increasing penetration of embedded devices, represents valuable information about the nature of product and equipment use for all participants in the production cycle, is the basis for the formation of new business models and provides additional income from the offer of new services, such as, for example: contract life cycle for industrial equipment, contract manufacturing as a service, transport as a service, security as a service and others;
• virtualization of production functions is accompanied by the formation of a “shared economy”, characterized by significantly higher efficiency and productivity by increasing the use of available resources, changing the functionality of devices without making changes to physical objects, by changing their management technologies;
• modeling of technological processes, end-to-end design and, as a result, optimization of the value chain at all stages of the product life cycle in real time, make it possible to produce a piece or small-scale product at a minimum price for the Customer and with a profit for the manufacturer, which in traditional production is only possible with mass production;
• Reference architecture, standardized networks, and a rental model rather than paying full cost of ownership make shared manufacturing infrastructure available to SMBs, facilitating their production management efforts, enabling faster response to changing market demands and shorter product life cycles, and entails development and emergence of new applications and services;
• analysis of data about the user, his production facilities (machines, buildings, equipment) and consumption patterns opens up opportunities for the service provider to improve customer experience, create greater ease of use, better solutions and reduce customer costs, which leads to increased satisfaction and loyalty from working with by this supplier;
• The functioning of various sectors of the economy will continuously become more complex under the influence of technological developments and will increasingly be carried out through automatic decision-making by the machines themselves based on the analysis of large amounts of data from connected devices, which will lead to a gradual reduction in the role of production personnel, including qualified ones. High-quality professional education, including engineering, special educational programs for workers and trainings will be required.

A striking example of the application of the Internet of Things concept in industry is the company’s project Harley Davidson, which produces motorcycles. The main problem the company faced was the slow response to consumer demands in an increasingly competitive environment and the limited ability to customize the five models produced by dealers. From 2009 to 2011, the company carried out a large-scale reconstruction of its industrial sites, as a result of which a single assembly site was created that produces any type of motorcycle with the possibility of customization from more than 1,300 options.

Sensors controlled by an MES (SAP Connected Manufacturing) class system are used throughout the entire production process. Each machine, each part has a radio tag that uniquely identifies the product and its production cycle. Data from sensors is transferred to the SAP HANA Cloud for IoT platform, which serves as an integration bus for collecting data from sensors and various information systems, both internal production and business systems of Harley Davidson, and information systems of the company’s counterparties.

Harley Davidson has achieved fantastic results:

• Reducing the production cycle from 21 days to 6 hours (every 89 seconds a motorcycle comes off the assembly line, completely customized for its future owner).
• The company's shareholder value has increased more than sevenfold from $10 in 2009 to $70 in 2015.

In addition, end-to-end management of the production of a product (motorcycle) has been implemented throughout its entire life cycle.

Another example of the implementation of the Industrial Internet is the Italian company Brexton is a manufacturer of stone processing machines that deployed an intelligent system based on the Microsoft ecosystem, as a result of which it became possible to connect the machines to remote servers of the control center, which stores production data and inventory information. The stone cutting and processing machines themselves are controlled by programmable logic controllers (PLC) connected to an HMI (Human Machine Interface). The HMI is connected to the Breton PLC using ASEM Ubiquity. The operator can access the network using the HMI, select the required specification, and use the barcode scanner to scan the data. All data required for the production of a specific sample is automatically downloaded to the PLC. The process does not require the use of paper instructions, manual adjustments, or manually running a stone cutting machine.

The solution allows you not only to manage and configure the operation of machines, but also to provide technical support in the form of a chat in real time. Breton plans to significantly reduce travel costs for its experts through remote service: 85% of the company's clients are located outside Italy. The company estimates the savings at 400 thousand euros.

Clients also benefit. Thus, the Taiwanese company Lido Stone Works, a manufacturer of custom-made stone products, installed three Breton machines and switched to automated production. The solution linked the design department with the production workshop, as a result of the implementation of the new system, Lido Stone Works received the following indicators:

• revenue growth by 70%;
• productivity increase by 30%.

Constraining factors and requirements for the implementation of IoT projects in Russia

Ecosystem and partners. To implement projects in the field of Internet of Things, it is necessary to form an entire ecosystem, including:

• availability in Russia of an IoT platform for collecting, storing and processing data, both global and national;
• the presence of an extensive pool of application developers for IoT platforms;
• a sufficient number and range of devices capable of interacting with platforms, so-called connected devices;
• the presence of enterprises and business in general, the organizational model of which allows for transformation, and so on.

If IoT platforms are already available in Russia, then the main difficulties are still associated with the development of application services and, most importantly, the organizational readiness of potential customers. At the same time, the absence of at least one of these components makes the transition to Internet of Things technologies impossible.

Governmental support. The implementation of Internet of Things projects in the world is actively supported by the state in the form of:

• direct government funding;
• public-private financing together with the largest players;
• working and project groups are formed from representatives of the industry and research institutions;
• test zones are organized and infrastructure for sharing is provided;
• competitions and hackathons for creating applications and developments are organized;
• pilot projects are supported;
• research and development are funded in various areas of implementation (artificial intelligence, management information systems, security, networking, etc.);
• export of developments is supported;
• Most large countries have approved long-term government programs to support the Internet of Things.

For example, the Industrie 4.0 project is recognized as an important measure in strengthening German technological leadership in mechanical engineering, and direct government funding of $200 million is expected for its development.

Additionally, for the implementation of the program, funding is provided for innovative research in the field of ICT through the Ministry of Education for the study of:

• intelligence of embedded devices;
• simulation models of network applications;
• human-machine interaction, language and media management, robotics services.

The technological systems and equipment of industrialized countries are becoming intelligent and connected. Enterprises are integrating into global industrial networks to connect a network of manufacturing resources and global applications.

This model is also called shared economy. It is based on the postulate that in any isolated system, the “exclusive” use of resources/devices is ineffective, regardless of how technologically “advanced” these devices/resources are. And the smaller such an isolated system, the less efficiently its resources are used, regardless of how technologically advanced they are.

Therefore, the task of IoT is not simply to connect various devices (machines and industrial equipment, vehicles, engineering systems) to a communication network, but to combine devices into software-controlled pools and provide the user not with the devices themselves, but with the results of their use (device functions).

This allows you to multiply the productivity and efficiency of using pooled devices relative to the traditional model of informationally isolated use and implement fundamentally new business models, such as, for example, a life cycle contract for industrial equipment, contract manufacturing as a service, transport as a service, security as service and others.

This possibility is achieved through the implementation of the cloud computing model in relation to physical objects (devices, resources equipped with built-in intelligent systems). Unlike proprietary (closed) automation systems, an unlimited number and range of devices and any other data sources can be connected to the IoT platform using open APIs, and the “big data” effect allows you to improve data analysis algorithms using machine learning technologies.

That is, the Internet of Things is not special high-tech devices, but a different model for using existing devices (resources), a transition from selling devices to selling their functions. In the IoT model, using a limited range of already installed devices, it is possible to implement almost unlimited functionality of devices without the need to make changes (or with a minimum of them) to the devices themselves, and thus achieve maximum utilization of these devices. In principle, achieving 100 percent efficiency in such systems is limited only by the imperfection of automatic resource management algorithms. By comparison, device recycling in traditional isolated systems is typically 4-6%.

Thus, we can say that the implementation of the Internet of things does not require significant changes in the connected devices themselves, and, as a result, capital costs for their modernization, but it does imply the need for a fundamental change in approaches to their use, consisting in the transformation of methods and means of collection and storage and processing data on the state of devices and the role of humans in data collection processes and device management. That is, the implementation of the Internet of Things requires a change in approaches to the creation and use of automated information management systems (ACS) and general approaches to the management of enterprises and organizations.

The main challenge in the medium term for Russia is the threat of loss of competitiveness on the world stage due to the lag in the transition to the sharing economy, the technological basis of which is the Internet of Things model, which will be reflected in an increase in the gap in labor productivity from the United States from fourfold in 2015 to more than tenfold in 2023.

And in the long term, if adequate measures are not taken, the emergence of an almost insurmountable technological barrier is predicted between Russia and the leading technological powers that rely on the introduction of highly efficient technologies and service deployment models, the operation of information and communication infrastructure and software applications, such as virtualization of network functions and automatic software control of them. This could lead to a reduction in the volume of ICT consumption in Russia in monetary terms by more than half in 2023 compared to 2015 and technological degradation of the ICT infrastructure deployed in the country, as well as to the isolation of Russian ICT developers from participating in actively developing current global development ecosystems and test environments.

In an optimistic scenario, the emergence and accelerated implementation of fundamentally new business and service models in the IoT ideology, taking into account government support and accompanied by R&D, as well as the possibility of creating an open competitive economy using technical means based on a fundamental change in the role of ICT in the management of manufacturing enterprises, will be key point of growth of industry and the Russian economy for the next three and subsequent years.

If we take into account that in terms of labor productivity, that is, in terms of the integral indicator of resource efficiency, Russia lags 4-5 times behind the USA and Germany, then the growth potential for our country is many times higher than that of the so-called developed countries. And this potential must be used through joint, well-coordinated efforts of the state, business, players, scientific and research organizations.

Obviously, the economic crisis will push Russian business to implement efficiency improvement projects. If we take into account that the transition to using the IoT model makes it possible to increase it by several times, and not by a fraction of a percent, and with virtually no capital investments in the modernization of fixed assets, then the consultants of J'son & Partners Consulting expect to see more than just “stories” this year success" of new IoT projects in Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, said that Russia needs to develop a “digital economy” - and, judging by the hype that immediately began around this phrase, this “digital economy” may well lay claim to the status of another national idea. Economic columnist for BUSINESS Online Alexander Vinogradov examines the issue of technological revolutions and the Solow Paradox.

Vladimir Putin, during a direct line with the people, said that Russia needs to develop a “digital economy” Photo: kremlin.ru

IT SEEMES THAT YOU HAVE YOUR HAND OUT AND THE FUTURE WILL COME

Sometimes the story itself leads to a certain topic.

Six months ago, I spoke on the radio, where, together with a presenter and a colleague from one of the Federation Council commissions, I discussed issues of economic transformation and, in particular, the sharp growth of various types of businesses based on the uber model (the so-called “uberization of the economy”). A month ago, I privately wrote a short review of a certain text devoted to aspects of the economy, which could, so to speak, become the basis in the world of the victorious fourth industrial revolution (hereinafter referred to as the 4th IR). The ideas expressed in it were quite interesting, but they were obviously based on the axiomatics of the 4th PR and if it was removed, these ideas would hang in the air, as was indicated. Finally, two weeks ago the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin during a direct line with the people, he said that Russia needs to develop a “digital economy” - and, judging by the immediate hype that began around this phrase, this “digital economy” may well lay claim to the status of another national idea. All this was superimposed on a rather sharp jump in the prices of major cryptocurrencies, which spurred interest in the whole topic of a new industry, new money and a new economy as a whole. In general, it seems that if you stretch out your hand, the future will come. Is it really? And what happens with the breakthrough into a bright tomorrow?

It’s worth saying right away that the vocabulary used by the apologists of the 4th PR immediately evokes a certain skepticism. Firstly, the word “revolution” itself implies a rather drastic qualitative change in the situation. A sort of “bang” - and everything becomes different. This does not seem at all like the truth, if only because the world economy is very inert. Secondly, the postulation of the 4th PR implies the presence of the 3rd, 2nd and even the 1st PR, and in relation to the first two it is recognized that they lasted for decades, but in this case there can be no talk of a revolution, since , due to the duration of the process, these changes are evolutionary. Thirdly, I was extremely surprised to even hear about the 4th PR, since quite recently there was a loud noise around the 3rd. This, of course, meets the criteria of a “revolution,” but has the future already arrived and the 3rd PR has fully come into its own?

Everything turned out to be both simpler and more difficult at the same time. The very topic of the 3rd PR was introduced into use by an American economist and ecologist Jeremy Rifkin, who published a book with the same title at the end of 2010 - although, it must be said, here he is secondary in relation to the American futurologist Alvin Toffler and his half-forgotten book “The Third Wave,” published back in 1980. Nevertheless, Rifkin's book created a sensation. Rifkin was immediately accepted by Obama and was named to the US Industrialization Commission. The Prime Minister of the State Council of the People's Republic of China was inspired by Rifkin's work Li Keqiang, who ordered that the book be urgently translated into Chinese, and then a quarter of a million copies distributed to Chinese leaders at various levels. In addition, Rifkin became a consultant to the EU on issues of the industrial revolution. In general, the award found the hero, and quite deservedly so.

The situation changed in 2016, after the famous Swiss economist Klaus Martin Schwab, founder and permanent president of the World Economic Forum in Davos, spoke at this very forum and without any hesitation proclaimed the upcoming 4th PR. Accordingly, Rifkin, as the ideologist of a “bright future,” had to make room on Olympus. Worse, as a result of Schwab’s speech (who has more weight than Rifkin), the entire PR methodology (already quite dubious) went haywire, and it had to be hastily corrected.

Thus, the following directions of development were initially envisaged within the framework of the 3rd PR:

— transition to renewable energy sources;

— localization of electricity production, each building is its generator;

— total energy saving and zeroing out emissions of all types and types;

— electric and hydrogen transport;

— composite materials and 3D printing of anything and everything;

- the arrival of a kind of “distributed capitalism” - with a reduction in intermediaries between producer and consumer, a confusion of these roles.

As you can see, the proposed changes are quite large-scale; Let's note this. At the same time, the 4th PR in its current edition promises us, among other things, a sharp increase in the use of “big data”, the development of the “Internet of things” and augmented reality against the backdrop of the spread of a distributed registry (blockchain) and the same 3D printing, and a reward in The end should be a sharp increase in labor productivity. But that is not all. In order to preserve the integrity of the view, the 3rd PR had to be noticeably cut down and, what is even more ridiculous, sent into the past: according to the most current methodology, the 3rd PR now means only and exclusively the “digital revolution” - three decades of mass distribution of computers and networks .

BETWEEN INVENTION AND EVERYDAY USE THERE IS A GAP CALLED IMPLEMENTATION

As a matter of fact, even such a cursory excursion into the history of the issue shows the considerable dubiousness of all these concepts. Again, this is not new: back in 1987, the famous American economist Robert Solow(a Nobel Prize winner that year) noted that “computers are everywhere except in productivity statistics,” a statement that later became known as the “Solow Paradox.” The reason for his skepticism is understandable - at least a decade and a half before this observation, spending on IT grew by 15 - 20% every year, while the annual growth in labor productivity during this period averaged 1.5 - 1.6% , that is, an order of magnitude weaker.

Let us note this key point again. So, technology is invented, technology is implemented (i.e. there is someone who pays for it!), and thus those who work in this field have money for the development and improvement of this technology, but for labor productivity in the economy in Overall these actions have little impact. Natural questions arise: who financed this IT splendor, did he get it back, and what exactly did he get in the end? The answer to this question is known: the main driver of the development of IT technologies was the financial and banking sector (very rich - on a planetary scale), which received in return the opportunity to powerfully expand its presence in the economy; I note that it is probably impossible to answer whether these investments paid off or not. Another thing is important - the technology rose with the money of financiers and was firmly integrated into global society. The whole range of other “folk” uses of computers and networks - from Prince of Persia and Digger to Telegram and Youtube - is already the icing on the cake.

Accordingly, it is precisely through this prism that various “revolutions” should be viewed. We read with interest about new inventions; they appear en masse, but between the invention and everyday use there is a gap called “implementation”. It, in turn, is determined solely by effective demand and nothing else - and this is where the fundamental problem lies in the path of any new product, whether included in the paradigm of the next “revolution” or not included in it. A good example here is 3D printing. Let me remind you that the current noise (already fairly subsided, I must say) around it began around 2007, exactly a decade ago. And where, excuse me, is the exhaust? 3D printing, as it was, has remained a purely niche toy, despite the enormous initial attention. The reason is simple - there is not enough demand, just as there was none in 1984, when the first 3D printer was invented.

The situation is similar with another fetish of the present time - robotization. A modern industrial robot, generally speaking, is no fundamentally different from the digging stick of primitive times described in a history textbook. They are tools created by man to solve his problems, and the process of their creation is continuous and iterative - old, crude tools are used to make newer and more precise ones, and so on ad infinitum. Accordingly, there can be no talk of any revolution in this regard, and the question comes down to a simple one: whether the robot will pay off or not. And it’s not at all a fact that it will pay off - not only I, but also my competitors are installing robots, and the demand for products does not change or even falls, since the robot, for example, will make it possible to fire unnecessary workers. As a result, the cost of labor decreases, and the robot may no longer be competitive. Let me remind you that about a quarter of the world's textiles are produced in Bangladesh using a half-century-old technology referred to as “woman + sewing machine.” Robots simply have nothing to do in this area, the available human labor is so cheap.

Exactly the same situation with “big data”. I remember very well the hype around IT in the 90s and the absolutely insane bubble in this market (P/E for Yahoo shares over 1200!), which ended in collapse. Then the fashion for cloud computing and thin clients began, now (more precisely, for about four years now) it’s big data as a range of technologies for working with huge amounts of data. No, of course, there is interest, there are venture investors (hoping to hit the jackpot), and one can only be happy for those who work in this area, as well as for those who are now actively digging the latest IT squeak, namely neural networks . But the issue of demand was and remains relevant for these areas of activity, and, say, it may well turn out that the software and hardware complex of an unmanned vehicle, consisting of a trained neural network as software and a processor and a set of lidars as an AO, will still be more expensive than a human driver .

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There is, however, one thing that can actually take off, is taking off and has already taken off in this entire spectrum of “new technologies”. These are p2p services. Uber-like services in taxis, Blablacar in long-distance transportation, Booking.com in tourism, even peer-to-peer lending platforms, especially in collaboration with the traditional banking sector, which, say, provides clients who have failed to pass the bank's own scoring procedures. Here we can also note the business model of TKS Bank with its rejection of the usual format of branches, that is, savings on them. The general point here is that savings come from the destruction of the usual intermediaries (who quit and enter the labor market, pushing it down); they are replaced by one or another IT platform built on the basis of an already created and extremely inexpensive to use IT infrastructure. But this doesn’t amount to an entire industrial revolution.

The point here, in fact, is purely psychological. Let me remind you that in less than two months it will be 10 years of the current global depression. Yes, exactly in August 2007, the first funds from those investing in subprime mortgages “went” to the United States. Ten years. Generally speaking, it is difficult to live in conditions of pale, anemic growth, and even against the backdrop of growing debts. Accordingly, in society there arises an unformulated demand for a miracle, for a magic wand, which, when grabbed by a specially trained cat, will do the same “bang” - and a bright future will suddenly come.

Unfortunately, it is not. Technologies will continue to be invented, the most cost-effective ones will be introduced, the picture of the world will slowly change. But we shouldn't expect breakthroughs. In 1985, a famous film foresaw flying cars as the norm three decades later. Alas. Didn't take off.

The fourth industrial revolution is sweeping the planet. At least, there have been conversations about it for several years now, especially after in 2011, when the issue of its implementation was raised at the official level in Germany, the country’s authorities declared a course towards the introduction of “smart production” or “Industry 4.0”.

© Vladimir Grigoriev / Photobank Lori

Why fourth? The first revolution occurred in the 19th century thanks to the mass introduction of steam engines, the second - in the first half of the 20th century based on electrification and electric motors, and the third - at the very end of the last century, based on automation and computers. The fourth is a supposed continuation of the third, but at a higher level, its main slogan is the so-called cyber-physical systems, that is, a close synthesis of computing and technological processes, when computer programs control production, and at the same time chips and sensors make all material elements of production parts of a single information system. systems.

A fine line

The line between the “third” and “fourth” revolutions is, of course, very thin. As the director of the project office explained to Internet Foresight according to RC Group Anatoly Gneushev, the existing economic model is based on the idea of ​​increasing production efficiency through automation without changing the technological processes themselves. At their core, these processes can exist without IT. But as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, IT will become the core of business and will lead to an irreversible transformation in production and business. All decisions in the digital economy will be made based on IT capabilities and resources. The technological basis for the transition to a new paradigm is the industrial Internet of things. Thanks to it, production will be controlled in real time by an intelligent system through interaction with the global environment. All technical devices will provide feedback and make technological decisions with subsequent reconfiguration of production. Data will become the core of the organization.

After the presentation of the Industry 4.0 concept in Germany, it was developed in the USA, China and other countries. In further development of the idea, in 2017 the Japanese government announced a large-scale concept for the country’s social development - Super Smart Society, or “Society 5.0”, which involves the use of the industrial Internet of things, robotics and artificial intelligence in both human everyday life and production. , and in the social sphere.

In South Korea, the government approved legislation in March establishing competency certification for new Fourth Industrial Revolution occupations, such as robotics software developers, robotics hardware developers, 3D printer developers and health information analysts.

According to the head of the product promotion department of the industrial automation department of Mitsubishi Electric Andrey Vorobyov, in “Industry 4.0” three main components can be distinguished: additive technologies - that is, 3D printers and everything connected with it, the industrial Internet of things and “big data”. According to Vorobyov, it is the last of the three components that is the most important.

“If we achieve high-quality processed information, then we expect high-quality analysis of production. As a result, we can see the disadvantages or advantages of production. Data analysis is now almost instantaneous, and you can immediately see what data from any mechanism, sensor and machine is available and what is missing.”

Without human intervention

As an example of the action of Industry 4.0. You can cite the German enterprise of the Adidas company. While the sportswear manufacturer's factories in Asia and Mexico use cheap labor, the Adidas plant in Germany has minimal human involvement. People only set a program on a computer and periodically monitor its operation.

At Mitsubishi Electric factories, according to Vorobiev, the onset of “Industry 4.0.” manifests itself, first of all, in the implementation of a platform that ensures a continuous flow of information at all levels: from the workshop to the administration. The system allows you to integrate industrial equipment and various communication systems that people use, which allows enterprise management to have more operational control of what is happening in production.

The “fourth revolution” comes when pervasive information platforms begin to interact with automated production nodes. Therefore, the revolution comes from two sides: through the introduction of new information systems and through the arrival of robots in production. Industrial robotization began at the end of the twentieth century, but its spread was delayed due to the transfer of industrial capacity to China and other countries with cheap labor. Now the second offensive of industrial and service robots has begun. For example, the Newtech company brought to the market robots that cut confectionery products with pinpoint precision.

© Igor Dolgov / Photobank Lori

An Invest Foresight journalist observed what this could look like at an automated logistics warehouse of the German company fischer, where a person is left with only one function: transferring products from the boxes in which they are stored in warehouses into boxes sent to the end consumer. At the same time, special shuttle robots remove boxes from warehouse shelves, transport them to the stacker’s workplace, then the computer system explains to the stacker how many units of product from which box should be transferred to which box, and then also controls people so that they do not make mistakes when transferring . Then he returns the box back to the storage shelf.

In general, it is easier to automate warehouses than industrial lines.

Therefore, it is no coincidence that in the March report of the Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan Timur Suleimenov, dedicated to “creating a new model of economic growth,” states that “the transport and logistics sectors can be seen as a natural starting point for Kazakhstan in Industry 4.0, building the entire logistics value chain, including warehousing, freight transportation and last-mile delivery.” "

Kazakhstan has, in principle, overtaken Russia, at least in terms of the level of awareness of the challenges facing the industry. In February, the Ministry of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan announced its intention to begin the systematic implementation of elements of the “fourth industrial revolution” in Kazakhstan. To ensure “sustainable, accelerated growth in industrial production,” the ministry plans to partner with leading global companies during 2017 to identify the industrial sectors best prepared to embrace elements of the new economy, the press release said.

“In these sectors, projects will be implemented to introduce Industry 4.0 technologies with further dissemination of experience to other enterprises and sectors,” the department’s release says.

The “Kazakhstan Institute for Industrial Development” has previously agreed with the Fraunhofer Institute (Germany) to conduct a diagnostic: to what extent the manufacturing sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan is ready to implement elements of Industry 4.0, as well as to develop systemic recommendations for accelerating the implementation of elements in the manufacturing industry.

Russia froze on the threshold

Are there examples of the implementation of Industry 4.0 in Russia?

“Today Russia cannot boast of a significant contribution to the development of technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” believes an expert from the investment company ZERICH Capital Management. Oleg Yakushev.

For now, Russia is “on the threshold” of a future revolution. Rostelecom, for example, is busy with projects to implement the industrial Internet in such well-known corporations as Gazprom Neft and UTair. According to the director of IIoT projects at Restream (a subsidiary of Rostelecom) Alexey Kulchitsky, many Russian companies are already starting pilot projects to implement the industrial Internet, but in the vast majority of cases - within the framework of local solutions, that is, without the use of platform technologies, and therefore they are still far from a revolution. According to the expert, the main reason for this is the lack of uniform standards for the industrial Internet, which sometimes leads to the impossibility of integrating all solutions “under one roof.” Distrust on the part of enterprises in placing all processed information in the “cloud” also plays a role.

“The formation of standards is the main priority for all companies developing IIoT platform solutions,” explains Alexey Kulchitsky. “That’s why the National Industrial Internet Consortium was created—to define the “rules of the game.”

President of the Haltek group of companies Alexander Khramov told Invest Foresight that his company is busy introducing cyber production and automated lines at Russian enterprises to which Haltek supplies machines. Machines combined into lines produce parts without human intervention. Creativity is not needed on the “conveyor”, so the use of robots in the production of repeatable even small-scale parts, according to Khramov, “justifies itself many times over.” As a typical example, he cites the introduction of automated lines at one of the Kazan factories. As a result, the plant has an automated section where machines are serviced by a robot, and the robot directly accesses the control program server and loads these programs into the machines for processing parts. The site allows you to automatically, without human intervention, fully ensure the work of one shift, and with constant load it is able to work around the clock.

“Simple modifications to the equipment for connecting the robot (pneumatic cylinders for opening doors, contact sensors, air supply for devices, software improvements) made it possible to form an independent automated cell capable of working without human intervention,” explains Khramov.

Subsequently, the plant management set the task of organizing the loading/unloading of large-sized parts onto/from fixtures using a robot. At another aviation industry enterprise, Haltek managed to create a robotic section for metalworking of parts.

“Alas, so far there is no one on the market that can boast of implemented platform solutions that characterize the industrial revolution 4.0. However, the ongoing pilot projects certainly show that we are on the threshold of global changes,” says Alexey Kulchitsky.

It should be borne in mind that there is simply no information about many innovative projects. For example, the editors of Invest Foresight learned that many elements of Industry 4.0. implemented at the Samara plant of the Bosch company. However, it was not possible to find out the details of the project.

“There are very modern enterprises in Russia, but the management of these enterprises is unlikely to want anyone to talk about their production, their concept, since at the moment this is their advantage in the market,” believes Andrey Vorobiev from Mitsubishi Electric. “I know that such companies already exist in microelectronics; they fully comply with the highest requirements in the world and are in no way inferior to European, American or Japanese ones. Japanese factories introduced the platform in the early 2000s and did not disclose their know-how at the initial stage.”

At the level of official documents, the Fourth Industrial Revolution has not yet become a state task, but at the level of leading enterprises there are already projects that are preparing the ground for radical changes. “Industrial Internet” and “Industry 4.0.” may well become the most fashionable slogans in the investment field in the coming years.